A Sustainable Transportation Advocate Explains Why Bikes and Buses, Not Cars, Should Be the Norm

Covid-19 temporarily upended how people use city streets. Courtney Cobbs says climate change and environmental justice demand more permanent changes to our transportation infrastructure.

A bicyclist with a protective mask waits at an intersection along Michigan Avenue in Chicago, Illinois, on Friday, July 24, 2020. Credit: Olivia Obineme/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Courtney Cobbs moved to Chicago from her home state of Arkansas as a young adult who wanted to live a car-free lifestyle. She felt guilty that getting into a car for the most basic everyday activities meant exacerbating climate change along the way.

She picked up biking when the city debuted its bikeshare system, Divvy, in 2013. Cobbs quickly skyrocketed to become one of the top 1 percent of Divvy users by mileage (before eventually getting her own bike) and now, she’s one of Chicago’s most visible advocates for sustainable transportation. 

The transportation sector is the largest contributor to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 29 percent of them in 2019. In recognition of this reality, the Biden administration is pushing hard for a speedy switch to electric vehicles, which do less damage to the atmosphere. But somewhat lost in the fervor for electric cars and trucks are all the other forms of transportation people can and often must use.

Public transit systems in many U.S. cities are still reeling from a sharp drop in ridership during the coronavirus pandemic and are calling for federal aid. But many essential workers and people with low incomes had no choice but to continue taking public buses and trains throughout the worst of the pandemic.

Households that make less than $25,000 in yearly income are far less likely to own a car, and households of color are generally less likely to own a car than white households. So, Cobbs says, better bus and train service together with safer infrastructure for bikers and pedestrians can combat environmental injustice as well as climate change.

Yet, in the infrastructure bill passed by the Senate this month, $100 billion is allocated to highways, bridges and roads primarily used by passenger cars—nearly three times the $39 billion that is earmarked for public transit. And other forms of sustainable transportation are receiving even less support.

While transit ridership fell last year, walking and biking rates shot up. But not all communities have streets designed with pedestrians’ and cyclists’ safety and convenience in mind. In 2019, approximately 6,000 pedestrians and 800 cyclists died across the United States after being hit by cars, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Her own dangerous encounters with drivers motivated Cobbs to speak out for cyclists and for sustainable transportation in general. In 2020, she co-founded an organization called Better Streets Chicago with three other local transportation advocates. She writes about sustainable transportation as a co-editor at Streetsblog Chicago, and engages with her fellow Chicagoans on streets, trails and online to champion better infrastructure—and a better culture of mobility to go with it.

In a recent interview with Inside Climate News, Cobbs spoke about the urgency of the climate crisis, how the coronavirus pandemic changed transportation in Chicago, her personal experiences biking around the city and how the United States can build more sustainable and equitable transportation systems.

When did you start biking?

Cobbs: I started when the bike share system here in Chicago debuted. I knew that it was a very environmentally friendly way to get around. It was fun. It can be convenient in the sense that if you miss a bus or you miss your train, you can just hop on a bike and go. And I really like the freedom of being on my own schedule, as opposed to the schedule of the transit system.

Sustainable transportation advocate Courtney Cobbs says her e-bike is a real conversation starter with her fellow Chicagoans. Photo Courtesy of Courtney Cobbs

What do the transportation options in Chicago look like right now?

Cobbs: Our buses make up the majority of the transit trips taken here in Chicago, but they don’t get a lot of love. Our buses are very slow, because we as a city have chosen not to prioritize them, which results in them being unreliable, which frustrates a lot of people. There are really big investments going on with our train system at the moment, and there’s not as much focus on improving the bus experience.

We have a huge bikeshare system, the Divvy system—they’re seeing record numbers of trips being taken. But I think it’s in spite of the lack of infrastructure. I do not see painted bike lanes as true biking infrastructure, and it frustrates me to see people label it that. Like, “Oh, this is biking infrastructure.” No, it isn’t. It’s really car infrastructure. 

Our city council is afraid to create the type of biking infrastructure that we really need, because it will [anger] the driving public, because it will result in parking spaces being converted to a protected bike lane, it will change the layout of the street. There’s so much room for improvement in the biking landscape here in Chicago. And I also recognize my privilege of living in a neighborhood where it is relatively bike-friendly, but even so I still have experiences where I fear for my life.

Are there significant differences between different neighborhoods?

Cobbs: When I lived on the South Side, at the time there were no quote unquote bike lanes…

Biking, in some communities, is seen as the lowest form of transportation, the transportation of last resort. It’s like, “Oh, you can’t even afford bus fare. So you have to ride a bike.” For some people, that is the case. And for others, it’s just how they want to get around. I think there’s a lot of untapped potential there, lots of people who would ride a bike if the infrastructure was safe and also convenient. 

There’s a perception that Black and brown people in lower income neighborhoods do not ride bikes. And there’s also the reality that lots of people do ride bikes in these neighborhoods. [Those people] are just not seen as important or valuable. 

Why is it important for people who care about transportation to care about race and class and social justice?

Cobbs: At the end of the day, the issue of climate change is going to impact us all. But those who are lower income, who are Black and brown—we will be the ones most impacted. In order to tackle these issues, the way I tend to see it is that those who have the most privilege should be the ones to change first, and maybe sacrifice a bit.

 I know a lot of people don’t like that word, and it scares people. But if you have the most privilege, what can you do with that privilege to help those who are at a disadvantage? How can you elevate their voices?

Not everyone has the capability of attending a meeting on transportation at 5 p.m. on a Wednesday night—maybe they’re working a second job, maybe they’re taking care of their children, whatever it may be. So if you do have the privilege of that free time, why not use it to advocate for something that will help the lives of people who are less fortunate than you?

If you could redesign the way transportation works in Chicago, what would it look like?

Cobbs: The vast majority of our buses would have priority on the streets. So they would have their own dedicated lane, they would have signal priority where the lights change to benefit the bus. We would have all-door boarding, and perhaps some prepaid boarding where people can pay for their bus fare ahead of time. And when the bus arrives, all they have to do is get on, as opposed to the really slow process we have now. 

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Has the pandemic changed the way people get around Chicago?

Cobbs: There’s been a huge increase in the amount of people biking. I see it with my own eyes, our bike-share statistics reflect an increase in ridership, our bike shops are sold out. Along with that, I think there’s also been an increase in driving. Some people in my life who did not own a car went out and bought a car during the pandemic because of…fears about contracting Covid on transit. 

A lot of cities invested in pop-up bike lanes. Chicago did not do that. There have been no major improvements.

It seems like you have a lot of encounters with people, especially women, who see you biking around town and get inspired to start biking themselves.

Cobbs: I really think my e-bike is to be credited with that. It’s been a real conversation starter. Before, when I had a traditional bike, people weren’t coming up to me and saying, like, “Hey, I really like your bike,” or “Wow, that’s a really cool bike.” 

I think there’s so much untapped potential with e-bikes. I think so many people want them and the money that we’re investing in electric vehicles—I think a good portion of that money could be better spent on getting people on e-bikes. But I don’t necessarily think we have to rely on the federal government, this can be done on a city or a state level. In some European cities, they’re giving people money to trade in their cars for an e-bike, and we could be doing the same thing.

Because women are more environmentally conscious, I think they get that bikes are the way to go. And e-bikes, especially, can be a strategy to get more women biking. But that has to come after you create the safe cycling infrastructure. A lot of people tell me, like, “Oh, you know, I wish I could ride a bike, but it’s so dangerous.” 

And I like to remind people riding a bike in and of itself is not dangerous. It’s really the cars that are dangerous.

Do you think there’s also something inspiring about seeing someone who’s not the stereotypical Lycra-wearing white man bike around and be so enthusiastic about it?

Cobbs: Absolutely. I remember one time when I was all dressed up for a date, and I went there on my bike. I was coming home, and this young woman saw me and she was like, “Oh, my gosh, you’re doing this in heels? Kudos to you.” 

Why the automotive future is electric

That hum in the distance is the sound of the concept of mobility changing—for the better. While challenges to the electrification of the vehicle parc persist, opportunities worth fighting for also lay ahead. This is particularly evident in cities, where emissions, congestion, and safety constitute major issues today. If the status quo continues, mobility problems will intensify as population and GDP growth drive increased car ownership and vehicle miles traveled. In response, the mobility industry is unleashing a dazzling array of innovations designed for urban roads, such as mobility-as-a-service, advanced traffic management and parking systems, freight-sharing solutions, and new transportation concepts on two or three wheels.

The current opportunity to transform the way we move fundamentally results from changes in three main areas: regulation, consumer behavior, and technology.

Regulation. Governments and cities have introduced regulations and incentives to accelerate the shift to sustainable mobility. Regulators worldwide are defining more stringent emissions targets. The European Union presented its “Fit for 55” program, which seeks to align climate, energy, land use, transport, and taxation policies to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, and the Biden administration introduced a 50 percent electric vehicle (EV) target for 2030. Beyond such mandates, most governments are also offering EV subsidies.

Cities are working to reduce private vehicle use and congestion by offering greater support for alternative mobility modes like bicycles. Paris announced it will invest more than $300 million to update its bicycle network and convert 50 kilometers of car lanes into bicycle lanes. Many urban areas are also implementing access regulations for cars. In fact, over 150 cities in Europe have already created access regulations for low emissions and pollution emergencies.

Consumer behavior. Consumer behavior and awareness are changing as more people accept alternative and sustainable mobility modes. Inner city trips with shared bicycles and e-scooters have risen 60 percent year-over-year and the latest McKinsey consumer survey suggests average bicycle use (shared and private) may increase more than 10 percent in the post-pandemic world compared with pre-pandemic levels (See also “The future of micromobility: Ridership and revenue after a crisis,” July 2020). In addition, consumers are becoming more open to shared mobility options. More than 20 percent of Germans surveyed say they already use ride-pooling services (6 percent do so at least once per week), which can help reduce vehicle miles traveled and emissions (See also “Shared mobility: Where it stands, where it’s headed,” August 2021).

Technology. Industry players are accelerating the speed of automotive technology innovation as they develop new concepts of electric, connected, autonomous, and shared mobility. The industry has attracted more than $400 billion in investments over the last decade—with about $100 billion of that coming since the beginning of 2020. All this money targets companies and start-ups working on electrifying mobility, connecting vehicles, and autonomous driving technology (See also “Mobility’s future: An investment reality check,” April 2021). Such technology innovations will help reduce EV costs and make electric shared mobility a real alternative to owning a car.

Electrification will play an important role in the transformation of the mobility industry and presents major opportunities in all vehicle segments, although the pace and extent of change will differ. To ensure the fast, widespread adoption of electric mobility, launching new EVs in the market is an important first step. In addition, the entire mobility ecosystem must work to make the transformation successful, from EV manufacturers and suppliers to financers, dealers, energy providers, and charging station operators—to name only a few (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1

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The future of passenger vehicle powertrains is electric; the transformation is ongoing

The tipping point in passenger EV adoption occurred in the second half of 2020, when EV sales and penetration accelerated in major markets despite the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Europe spearheaded this development, where EV adoption reached 8 percent due to policy mandates such as stricter emissions targets for OEMs and generous subsidies for consumers.

In 2021, the discussions have centered on the end date for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales. New regulatory targets in the European Union and the United States now aim for an EV share of at least 50 percent by 2030, and several countries have announced accelerated timelines for ICE sales bans in 2030 or 2035. Some OEMs have stated their intentions to stop investing in new ICE platforms and models and many more have already defined a specific date to end ICE vehicle production. Consumer mindsets have also shifted toward sustainable mobility, with more than 45 percent of car customers considering buying an EV.

However, the continued acceleration of electrification is putting significant pressure on OEMs, their supply chains, and the broader EV ecosystem to meet these targets. This is particularly obvious with respect to setting up the required charging infrastructure.

By 2035, the largest automotive markets will go electric

Regulatory pressure and the consumer pull toward EVs vary greatly by region. Europe is mainly a regulation-driven market with high subsidies, while in China consumer pull is very strong despite reduced incentives. In the United States, EV sales have grown slowly due to both limited regulatory pressure and consumer interest, although the regulator trend is set to change under the new administration.

On a global level, we expect EV (BEV, PHEV, and FCEV) ¹ adoption to reach 45 percent under currently expected regulatory targets. However, even this transformative EV growth outlook is far below what’s required to achieve net zero emissions. EVs would need to account for 75 percent of passenger car sales globally by 2030, which significantly outpaces the current course and speed of the industry.

We believe Europe—as a regulatory-driven market with positive consumer demand trends—will electrify the fastest and is expected to remain the global leader in electrification in terms of EV market share. In addition to the European Commission target, which requires around 60 percent EV sales by 2030, several countries have already announced an end to ICE sales by 2030. In line with this, seven OEM brands have committed to 100 percent EV sales by 2030 within the European Union. In the most likely accelerated scenario, consumer adoption will exceed regulatory targets and Europe will reach around 75 percent EV market share by 2030. The European Union announced a zero-emissions target for new cars by 2035.

China will also continue to see strong growth in electrification and remain the largest EV market in absolute terms. Uptake results from strong consumer pull, despite low EV subsidies and no official end date for ICE sales. However, the government’s dual-credit policy has led to an increased EV share in OEMs’ portfolios. Our adoption modeling yields a Chinese EV share above 70 percent for new car sales in 2030 in the accelerated scenario.

In the United States, the Biden administration announced a 50 percent electrification target for 2030, strong investments in charging infrastructure, and more stringent fleet emissions targets. EV uptake will result mainly from regulatory support in California and other states that follow its CARB ZEV regulation. US OEMs support electrification targets and have declared ICE bans by 2035, meaning the United States will follow Europe and China in EV uptake with a small delay; it is expected to exceed current regulatory targets and reach 65 percent EV sales by 2030 in the accelerated scenario (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2

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The e-mobility transformation will disrupt more than the automotive industry

In the European Union, achieving the accelerated scenario of around 75 percent EV sales by 2030 will have implications for the entire EV value chain and ecosystem. In parallel, the industry must decarbonize the full lifecycle of vehicles to get closer to a net-zero target.

Incumbent automotive suppliers need to shift production from ICE to EV components. Europe will have to build an estimated 24 new battery giga-factories to supply local passenger EV battery demand. With more than 70 million EVs on the road by 2030, the industry will need to install large numbers of public chargers and provide maintenance operations for them. Renewable electricity production needs to increase by 5 percent to meet EV charging demand. Finally, emissions from BEV production must decline, since BEVs currently have 80 percent higher emissions in production than ICE vehicles (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3

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Electrification will cause a major shift in the entire automotive supply chain

The transformation of the automotive industry toward electrification will disrupt the entire supply chain and create a significant shift in market size for automotive components. Critical components for electrification such as batteries and electric drives and for autonomous driving like light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors and radar sensors will likely make up about 52 percent of the total market size by 2030. Components only used in ICE vehicles such as conventional transmissions, engines, and fuel injection systems would see a significant decline to around 11 percent by 2030—about half the size of 2019 levels. Such a drastic shift will force traditional component players to adapt quickly to offset decreasing revenue streams.

The scale of disruption will be significant: according to the Institute for Economic Research (Ifo) in Munich, more than 100,000 jobs will change in the German automotive industry by 2030. That is roughly five to ten times the scale of jobs compared with the phaseout of coal power that Germany announced for 2038 (Exhibit 4).

Exhibit 4

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Announced EU battery production will likely stay just ahead of demand

Based on announced buildup plans, we expect a 20-fold increase in battery production capacity in Europe to 965 GWh by 2030. Assuming the full capacity is built by 2030, Europe should meet expected demand of 874 GWh. BEV passenger cars and commercial vehicles will drive 90 percent of this battery demand. While on paper announced capacities seem to follow and match demand, in reality temporary implementation risks will likely occur given giga-factory production issues, typically slow yield ramp-ups, fragmentation of the supply chain, and large inflexible OEM contracts. Thus, in an accelerated EV adoption case, battery demand would come very close to exceeding announced supply in the medium term. In the next ten years, we expect the mining industry to slow down and other geopolitical and supply chain crises to pop up periodically, leading to some short-term price spikes in commodities like nickel and lithium.

Battery cell production is moving physically closer to vehicle assembly plants. While ten years ago almost all cells were imported from Asia, regional production hubs exist today in Eastern Europe, for example. Furthermore, multiple plants will go onstream in key vehicle-producing countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, and France and in low-carbon-emitting environments such as Norway and Sweden.

In addition to incumbent battery cell players from Asia setting up locations in Europe, some entirely new companies are entering the space. One key development in battery sourcing involves the backward integration of OEMs from packs and modules up to cell production—mostly in the form of joint ventures with cell manufacturers. OEM backward integration plans result from their growing battery cell demand, the desire for control and certainty of supply, and the ambition to keep a significant part of vehicle value creation inhouse. OEMs are also seeking areas for differentiation, with battery technology, durability, and performance seen as key evaluation criteria for BEVs.

Production of raw materials and battery components follow the localization trend of battery cell plants. However, there is a time lag and only some of the raw materials needed, which include nickel, cobalt, lithium, and graphite, are available for local sourcing in Europe. Companies must therefore compete globally to secure required volumes and do it sustainably in line with environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. While all four commodities must ramp up quickly, with potential price variation in the future, nickel will likely be the commodity under the most pressure in the short to medium term (Exhibit 5).

Exhibit 5

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Acceleration in charging infrastructure buildup needed

In line with EV uptake, the buildup of charging infrastructure needs to accelerate to avoid becoming a potential bottleneck and limiting consumer-driven EV adoption. Building charging infrastructure in sync with the EV fleet will be essential in the coming decade.

While first-generation EV buyers relied mainly on private charging (in 2020, 80 percent of EV buyers in Europe had access to private charging), the next generation will depend on public charging. More than 50 percent of Europeans will be living in multifamily homes without private charger access, and public chargers will ensure practicality of EVs for long-distance trips, which prospective EV buyers still consider a main concern.

Likewise, regulatory processes to install chargers in private homes require simplification and production capacity for wall boxes must increase. Production scale-up and simplified regulation (in terms of shortened permit and building times) are also necessary for public chargers, in addition to the creation of demand-based coverage.

We estimate the industry needs to install more than 15,000 chargers per week by 2030 within the European Union. Simplified regulations are needed to facilitate charger siting, since it can currently take up to three years to obtain approval for grid extensions for a fast-charging station. Ensuring the EU-wide coverage of public charging is essential to avoid having chargers located only in profitable locations.

EVs are poised to command on average more than 5 percent of electricity demand in 2030 in Europe. It will be important to reduce charging during peak load periods through “managed charging” by controlling charging time, duration, and intensity with vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology as an enabler. In a scenario with appropriately managed charging devices in place as well as incentives to charge during nonpeak hours, much of the customer impact on the electric grid will be mitigated (Exhibit 6).

Exhibit 6

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Reaching net zero also means decarbonizing EV production

There is a clear path to reducing CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) emissions from passenger cars in operation. A recent International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) analysis stated that the shift from ICE to BEV would reduce total lifecycle CO₂e emissions by around 65 percent based on the current average energy mix in Europe and by 83 percent with entirely green electricity.

As the electricity supply evolves and charging with green energy for a larger fleet of EVs becomes feasible, materials and production will become the dominant sources of emissions in an EV’s lifecycle. Today an EV’s production generates an almost 80 percent higher emissions intensity compared with an ICE car, due mainly to the battery and the vehicle’s higher share of aluminum.

When aiming to reduce material emissions, two main issues matter:

Increasing recycled content. Replacing virgin/primary materials with recycled alternatives will save a large share of emissions associated with the initial generation of raw materials. Replacing 30 percent of primary material with recycled material can save 15 to 25 percent ² of production emissions. Recycled material use, however, comes with multiple challenges, including the reality that end-of-life (EOL) collection remains very immature, making it difficult to achieve an automotive-grade materials stream. Furthermore, multiple industries are interested in using recycled material to achieve their decarbonization targets, which will result in supply bottlenecks and the higher prices of several recycled materials.

Shifting to green raw materials. Using primary materials produced in a low/no-carbon process enables high-grade materials with low emissions footprints. Examples of this approach include inert anode aluminum smelting via hydroelectricity or steel produced through hydrogen-based direct reduced iron in an electric arc furnace (H2 DRI-EAF steel). Around 80 to 90 percent of today’s typical material emissions can be eliminated with 2030 technologies. The main approaches involve decarbonizing the raw material refining processes by using renewable electricity, for example, and decarbonizing the forming as well as other high-energy manufacturing processes, also via electrification.

While a switch in electricity resources is simple, the shift from today’s processes to manufacturing routes that avoid CO₂e emissions altogether—rather than capturing or gradually reducing them—will require significant investments in plants and equipment. A predictable demand for green materials and long-term commitments between suppliers and buyers would help overcome this obstacle in the next decade.

A determined approach to decarbonizing and combining these methods could produce vehicles with 10 to 30 percent of today’s production emissions by 2030—a challenging feat but necessary to fulfill the Green Deal aspiration. Nevertheless, decarbonizing the supply chain and achieving Scope 3 emissions reductions may cause vehicle costs to rise at a time when OEMs are trying to lower prices to boost consumer interest and achieve sustainable long-term margins (Exhibit 7).

Exhibit 7

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A 55 percent transport emissions reduction target by 2030 versus 1990 requires more drastic measures

Current regulation and targets are not sufficient if the road transport sector wants to fully contribute to the 55 percent CO₂e emissions reduction target by 2030 versus 1990 as required by the Fit for 55 program.

However, passenger cars have one advantage over other industries from a decarbonization point: The zero-emissions option (e.g., the BEV) is cheaper than the current alternative (ICE) from a total cost of ownership perspective in some countries today and by 2025 at the latest in countries without incentives. This is not the case in most other industries, where decarbonizing results in higher costs for both producers and consumers.

Our capabilities

The McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (MCFM) aims to help all stakeholders in the mobility ecosystem navigate the future by providing independent and integrated evidence about possible future mobility scenarios. Our view of trends are grounded in advanced multi-level driver based models that have been validated across industries and players. Each model is based on proprietary data and contributes to an integrated perspective on future mobility trends and scenarios including modal mix, miles traveled, vehicle sales, autonomy, powertrain electrification, battery demand, charging infrastructure, components, consumer behavior, and value/profit pools, etc.

This charticle leveraged insights from multiple MCFM models and the broad MCFM Solution team. Please get in touch if you would like to learn more.

However, with the average car age at ten years in Europe, it will take time for EV sales to have an impact at the parc level. The current regulation on sales is therefore not sufficient to meet the goal of a 55 percent emissions reduction from 1990 levels by 2030.

Closing this gap will require further measures targeting CO₂e emissions of the vehicle parc. ICE vehicle kilometers traveled could be decreased by reducing private car kilometers, increasing shared mobility, and changing consumer perspectives on walking/biking.

At the same time, the most efficient lever is to accelerate the ICE parc turnover and remove highly polluting ICE vehicles from the fleet with, for example, “cash-for-clunkers” programs for old ICE cars.

Another way to reduce CO₂e emissions from ICE vehicles is to increase the share of bio- and e-fuels as these have a low carbon footprint and are compatible with the existing ICE parc. However, the majority of bio- and e-fuels supply will be required to decarbonize marine/aviation and commercial road transport, for which only limited zero-emissions alternatives exist today (Exhibit 8).

Exhibit 8

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Electric vehicles are coming, and we are on the right track regarding decarbonizing the transport sector, though more actions need to be taken. It is an industry transformation taking place at unprecedented speed. It is also crossing industry borders, involving energy, infrastructure, mobility, and automotive players. While a major challenge, it represents a huge opportunity for incumbents and new players to take a leading role in creating new multi-billion industries and jobs. The key will be to couple sustainability with economic viability through innovative technology and properly guided mobility transformation. Based on its diverse mobility landscape, its focus on sustainability and its proven technology leadership, Europe could emerge as a role model for other regions globally.